The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear
The acceleration of non-linear consequences will surprise the brainwashed, loving-their-servitude mainstream media.
Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we’d expect sales to drop by about 2%, businesses closing their doors to increase by about 2%, profits to notch down by about 2%, lending contracts by around 2% and so on.
But the effects of the next recession won’t be linear–they will be non-linear, and far more devastating than whatever modest GDP decline is registered. To paraphrase William Gibson’s insightful observation that “The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed”: the recession is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed– and its effects will be enormously asymmetric.
Non-linear effects can be extremely asymmetric. Thus an apparently mild decline of 2% in GDP might trigger a 50% rise in the number of small businesses closing, a 50% collapse in new mortgages issued and a 10% increase in unemployment.
Richard Bonugli of Financial Repression Authority alerted me to the non-linear dynamic of the coming slowdown. I recently recorded a podcast with Richard on one sector that will cascade in a series of non-linear avalanches once the current asset bubbles pop and the current central-bank-created “recovery” falters under its staggering weight of debt, malinvestment and speculative excess.
1 Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand;
2 by which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain.
3 For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures;
4 and that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:
1 Now concerning spiritual gifts, brethren, I would not have you ignorant.
2 Ye know that ye were Gentiles, carried away unto these dumb idols, even as ye were led.
3 Wherefore I give you to understand, that no man speaking by the Spirit of God calleth Jesus accursed: and that no man can say that Jesus is the Lord, but by the Holy Ghost.
4 Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
5 And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
6 And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh all in all.
7 But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
8 For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word of knowledge by the same Spirit;
9 to another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by the same Spirit;
10 to another the working of miracles; to another prophecy; to another discerning of spirits; to another divers kinds of tongues; to another the interpretation of tongues:
11 but all these worketh that one and the selfsame Spirit, dividing to every man severally as he will.
12 For as the body is one, and hath many members, and all the members of that one body, being many, are one body: so also is Christ.
13 For by one Spirit are we all baptized into one body, whether we be Jews or Gentiles, whether we be bond or free; and have been all made to drink into one Spirit.
1 Therefore leaving the principles of the doctrine of Christ, let us go on unto perfection; not laying again the foundation of repentance from dead works, and of faith toward God,
2 of the doctrine of baptisms, and of laying on of hands, and of resurrection of the dead, and of eternal judgment.
3 And this will we do, if God permit.
4 For it is impossible for those who were once enlightened, and have tasted of the heavenly gift, and were made partakers of the Holy Ghost,
5 and have tasted the good word of God, and the powers of the world to come,
6 if they shall fall away, to renew them again unto repentance; seeing they crucify to themselves the Son of God afresh, and put him to an open shame.
7 For the earth which drinketh in the rain that cometh oft upon it, and bringeth forth herbs meet for them by whom it is dressed, receiveth blessing from God:
8 but that which beareth thorns and briers is rejected, and is nigh unto cursing; whose end is to be burned.
1 Who hath believed our report? and to whom is the arm of the Lord revealed?
2 For he shall grow up before him as a tender plant,and as a root out of a dry ground:he hath no form nor comeliness;and when we shall see him,there is no beauty that we should desire him.
3 He is despised and rejected of men;a man of sorrows, and acquainted with grief:and we hid as it were our faces from him;he was despised, and we esteemed him not.
4 Surely he hath borne our griefs,and carried our sorrows:yet we did esteem him stricken,smitten of God, and afflicted.
5 But he was wounded for our transgressions,he was bruised for our iniquities:the chastisement of our peace was upon him;and with his stripes we are healed.
6 All we like sheep have gone astray;we have turned every one to his own way;and the Lord hath laid on him the iniquity of us all.
7 He was oppressed, and he was afflicted,yet he opened not his mouth:he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter,and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb,so he openeth not his mouth.
8 He was taken from prison and from judgment:and who shall declare his generation? for he was cut off out of the land of the living:for the transgression of my people was he stricken.
9 And he made his grave with the wicked,and with the rich in his death;because he had done no violence,neither was any deceit in his mouth.
10 Yet it pleased the Lord to bruise him;he hath put him to grief:when thou shalt make his soul an offering for sin,he shall see his seed, he shall prolong his days,and the pleasure of the Lord shall prosper in his hand.
11 He shall see of the travail of his soul, and shall be satisfied:by his knowledge shall my righteous servant justify many;for he shall bear their iniquities.
12 Therefore will I divide him a portion with the great,and he shall divide the spoil with the strong;because he hath poured out his soul unto death:and he was numbered with the transgressors;and he bare the sin of many,and made intercession for the transgressors.